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Working Papers

Climate Change Population Growth and Population Pressure  “(with Vernon Henderson, Bo Yeon Jang, and Adam Storeygard),  January 2024.

“Land Quality” August2022 (with Vernon Henderson and Adam Storeygard).  A previous version of this paper circulated under the title     “Quality-adjusted Population Density,” NBER Working Paper 28070, November 2020  Coverage in VoxEU.


Published and Forthcoming

“The Monetary Economics of e-Money in East Africa” in Dianah Ngui et al., eds, Digital Financial Inclusion and Market Development in East African Community (EAC) Economies, African Economic Research Consortium e-book, 2023.

The Effect of Increasing Human Capital Investment on Economic Growth and Poverty: A Simulation Exercise,” Journal of Human Capital 14:1, Spring 2020 (with Matthew E. Collin)

The Influence of Ancestral Lifeways on Individual Economic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa” Journal of the European Economic Association, 17:4, August 2019 (with Stelios Michalopoulos and Louis Putterman).

The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133:1, February 2018, Pages 357–406, (with Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, and Adam Storeygard). [Web Appendix and replication data on Adam Storeygard’s website]

How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and ReformsGeneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, July 2017 (with 12 other authors).

The Cognitive Effects of Micronutrient Deficiency: Evidence from Salt Iodization in the United States,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 15-2, April 2017 (with James Feyrer and Dimitra Politi).

Gyrations in African Mortality and their Effect on Economic Growth,” Journal of Demographic Economics, 83:1, March 2017, 103-110.

Malaria and Early African Development: Evidence from the Sickle Cell Trait,” Economic Journal, 2017 (with Emilio Depetris Chauvin).

Health Improvement and Income Growth in the Long Run” in Matteo Cervellati and Uwe Sunde, eds., Demographic Change and Long-Run Development, MIT Press, 2017, 43-68.

On the spatial distribution of development. The roles of nature and history” in Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou, eds., The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History Volume I: A Global View, a e-book, London: CEPR, 2017. (with Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, and Adam Storeygard)

Evaluating the Effects of Large-Scale Health Interventions in Developing Countries: The Zambian Malaria Initiative” in Edwards, Johnson, and Weil, eds., African Successes Volume II: Human Capital, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016 (with Nava Ashraf and Gunther Fink).

 Mobile Banking: The Impact of M-Pesa in Kenya,” in Edwards, Johnson, and Weil, eds., African Successes Volume III: Modernization and Development, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016 (with Isaac Mbiti)

 Old Teachers, Old Ideas, and the Effect of Population Aging on Economic GrowthResearch in Economics 69(4), 661-670, 2015 (with Jillian Berk)

Review of Angus Deaton’s The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality  for the Journal of Economic Literature 2015, 53(1), 102–114

Capital and Wealth in the 21st Century” (Discussion of Piketty’s book for ASSA meetings January 2015).  AER May 2015.   Longer Working Paper Version

“Health and Economic Growth”  in Aghion and Durlauf, eds., The Handbook of Economic Growth Volume 2B, North Holland, 2014.

The Home Economics of E-Money: Velocity, Cash Management, and Discount Rates of M-Pesa Users,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 2013, 103 (3), 369-374 (with Isaac Mbiti)

The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth,” Population and Development Review 39(1) : 97–130 (March, 2013) (with Quamrul Ashraf and Joshua Wilde)  October 2012 Version — contains material on age-specific saving rates and the effect of land in the production function that is cut out of the published version.  NBER Working Paper Version — Instead of the UN demographic scenarios used in the published version, this one uses a stable population and an instantaneous reduction in TFR

“The Impact of Malaria on African Development over the Longue Duree” in Emmanuel Akyeampong, Robert Bates, Nathan Nunn, and James A. Robinson,  eds.,  Africa’s Development in Historical Perspective Cambridge University Press, 2014.

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space American Economic Review, 102(2), April 2012, pp. 994-1028 .( with Vernon Henderson and Adam Storeygard)

The Dynamics of Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption” Journal of Population Economics Volume 25, Issue 3 (2012), Page 1019-1043 (with Heinrich Hock).

“Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality” Quarterly Journal of Economics 125:4, November 2010 (with Louis Putterman)

Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement,” Journal of Economic Growth, 15:1, March 2010 (with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan)

“Endemic Diseases and African Economic Growth,” Journal of African Economies  May, 2010

“How Relevant is Malthus for Economic Development Today?” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings May 2009

When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?”  in Acemoglu, Rogoff, and Woodford, eds.., NBER Macro Annual 2008 (with Quamrul Ashraf and Ashley Lester).

Economic Growth,” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.(with Peter Howitt).

Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122:3, August, 2007.

“Population Aging,”  In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.Working Paper Version

How Much of Cross-Country Income Variation is Explained by Health?Journal of the European Economic Association, 1:2-3, April-May, 2003 (with Gauri Kartini Shastry)

“The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105:3, 2003 (with Kyung-Mook Lim)

“Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond” American Economic Review, September, 2000 (with Oded Galor)

“Saving and Growth with Habit Formation” American Economic Review, June, 2000 (with Chris Carroll and Jody Overland).

Mortality Decline, Human Capital Investment, and Economic Growth” Journal of Development Economics, 62:1, 2000, 1-23 (with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Harl E. Ryder)

“Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings May, 1999.

“From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings May, 1999 (with Oded Galor).

“Appropriate Technology and Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 1998,(with Susanto Basu).

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility, Inequality, and Growth” Journal of Monetary Economics, 1998 (with Ann Owen).

The Genesis and Evolution of Social Security” in Michael Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene White, eds., The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century University of Chicago Press, 1998 (with Jeffrey Miron).

“Comparison Utility in a Growth Model” Journal of Economic Growth, December, 1997 (with Chris Carroll and Jody Overland).

“An Asset Allocation Puzzle” American Economic Review, March, 1997 (with Niko Canner and Greg Mankiw).

The Economics of Population Aging” in Mark Rosenzweig and Oded Stark, eds., Handbook of Population and Family Economics North Holland, 1997

“The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth” American Economic Review, June, 1996 (with Oded Galor).

“The Effect of News on Bond Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1900-1920,” Review of Economics and Statistics, June, 1996 (with Douglas Elmendorf and Mary Hirschfeld).

Intergenerational Transfers, Aging, and Uncertainty” in David Wise, ed., Advances in the Economics of Aging, University of Chicago Press, 1996.

Saving and Growth: A ReinterpretationCarnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 40, June 1994 (with Chris Carroll).

“A Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” in N. Gregory Mankiw, ed., Monetary Economics, University of Chicago Press, 1994 (with Jeffrey Miron and Christina Romer).

“The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data” Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1994.

A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2) May, 1992. (with Greg Mankiw and David Romer)

The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market: A Reply to Our Critics,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21:4, 1992 (with Greg Mankiw).

What Determines Savings? A Review Essay [book review]  Journal of Monetary Economics 28 (1991), pp. 161-170.

“Optimal Advice for Monetary Policy,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February, 1990 (with Susanto Basu, Miles Kimball, and Greg Mankiw).

The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market” Regional Science and Urban Economics 19, May, 1989. Reprinted in Economics Alert 6, November 1993. (with Greg Mankiw).

“The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914” European Economic Review April, 1988 (with Robert Barsky, Greg Mankiw, and Jeffrey Miron).

“The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve,” American Economic Review June, 1987, (with Greg Mankiw and Jeffrey Miron).